Opinion | How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps (2024)

With Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, the enthusiasm and confidence within the Democratic Party feel stronger than at any point I’ve seen since Barack Obama ran for president in 2008. And it’s not just vibes: The paths to victory in the Electoral College have been completely reshaped for the Democrats – and for Donald Trump – since my last analysis of the electoral map on July 12, nine days before Joe Biden exited the race.

Not only have Democrats come home to support their party’s nominee, they are now also more energized about the election than Republicans. Ms. Harris has quickly picked up support from nonwhite and younger voters.

We are now back to the same electoral map that we had before Mr. Biden’s summertime polling collapse: Once again, the winner in November will come down to the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Current polling shows the transformed race: While Mr. Biden trailed Mr. Trump in all seven battleground states last month, Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the latest New York Times/Siena College polls. Other polls show Ms. Harris in a statistical dead heat in Georgia and Arizona.

Those polls also reveal one of Mr. Trump’s biggest obstacles to winning the election: A majority of the country has never supported him, either as president or as a candidate for office. In the Times/Siena surveys, Mr. Trump had polled at only 46 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And with the race no longer between two unpopular nominees, support for third-party candidates has dropped, making it much more difficult for Mr. Trump to win.

And yet: Republicans have a structural advantage in the Electoral College system of voting, giving Mr. Trump at least one advantage against a surging Ms. Harris.

The G.O.P. lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, yet won the White House in three of those elections. In 2016, Mr. Trump eked out Electoral College wins in swing states like Wisconsin even as Hillary Clinton crushed him in the most populous states like California. The Republican edge has only grown stronger with the reallocation of electoral votes based on the most recent census.

Given that structural advantage, Georgia, and its 16 Electoral College votes, is increasingly becoming a pivotal state that Mr. Trump can’t lose. If Ms. Harris is able to carry Georgia – and Mr. Trump seems to be trying to help her by inexplicably attacking the popular incumbent Republican governor and his wife – then she would have 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the 270 needed to win.

Mr. Trump may not understand the political consequences of losing Georgia, but his advisers appear to: His campaign and biggest aligned super PAC spent four times as much in advertising in the state in the two weeks since Ms. Harris became the Democratic Party nominee as they did in the rest of 2024 combined. And in this coming week, of the $37 million in ad buys that the Trump campaign has placed nationally, almost $24 million are in Georgia.

Pennsylvania looks increasingly to be the other key battleground state, and both parties know it. According to AdImpact, over $211 million in paid media has so far been purchased in Pennsylvania from March 6 until Election Day, which is more than double the amount in any other state.

Given its size and support for Democratic candidates in the past, if Ms. Harris loses Pennsylvania, that could be just as damaging to her candidacy as a loss in Georgia would be to Mr. Trump’s chances.

This is why Georgia and Pennsylvania are the two most important states to watch to see if one candidate is able to establish a decisive path to 270 electoral votes.

A Look Ahead to November

Ms. Harris clearly has the momentum going into the Democratic National Convention, but she has not really been tested yet. At some point she will need to demonstrate that she can perform under pressure in order to win over undecided voters and less enthusiastic moderates and independents.

As unruly as this election year has been, there are still certain rules of politics that apply to the presidential race. History has repeatedly shown that the winning candidates are usually the ones best able to define who they are, whom they are running against and what the election is about.

Mr. Trump had made the election a referendum of his presidency compared to Mr. Biden’s – that he was a strong leader and Mr. Biden was weak.

In the past three weeks, Ms. Harris has set the terms of the campaign as a choice between change versus going backward – a positive view of the future compared to a dystopian view of the present with a desire to go back to the past.

But even though Ms. Harris’s favorability has gone up significantly since she announced her candidacy, the increase in support is soft. That is the reason that the Democratic convention is such an important opportunity for her to close the deal with key swing voters.

Mr. Trump, on the other hand, is fully defined in the minds of most voters, and has elected to double down on catering to his MAGA base despite alienating the key swing voter blocs that will determine the outcome of the election. During the last hour of his convention speech, and every day since then, Mr. Trump has offered words and actions that remind Americans why they voted him out of office in 2020.

Mr. Trump has increasingly looked like a washed-up rock star who can play only his greatest hits for his dwindling group of fans. If he loses in November, he will have been a one-hit wonder who led the Republican Party to four presidential and midterm election-cycle losses in a row.

Doug Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised over 50 governors and U.S. senators.